They are called underdogs for a reason with that reason being that the probabilities for success are limited. Josh Tomlin had staved off regression to the mean accusations from statistical models for nearly a full season since returning from injury in 2015. A player, however, can only dodge inevitability for so long and on Thursday, the Washington Nationals continued a bad trend for Tomlin as they knocked him out of the game after just four innings of work. All in, with seven runs crossing the plate, it was all the Nats would need as they evened the season series with the Cleveland Indians by taking the game, 7-4.
Tomlin’s Troubles
The solo home runs that were passed off as tolerable due to Tomlin’s insanely low walk rate have become Jayson Werth three-run bombs as Little Cowboy leads MLB by having given up 27 bombs. The idea that home runs were the only hard hit balls has also been thrown out the window as the Nationals were the second team in a row to obtain four doubles off Tomlin. The walks are still limited (AL-best 1.2 BB/9), but his propensity to pitch to fly ball contact has been met with hard hit shots and many runs scored for the opposition.
Tomlin’s FIP minus ERA had been laughably large, but that difference keeps getting smaller. After Thursday, Little Cowboy’s ERA rose to 4.18, making it the first time this season it had gone over four. His ERA is still well below his 4.86 FIP, but his 5.40 ERA over his last nine starts (since June 20) indicates he needs to adjust if he would like to keep it that way.
One worrisome trend is Tomlin’s 17.2 K rate is well below recent years where he held steady around 20 percent. Said another way: He went from striking out eight batters every nine innings pitched to just six and a half. His K:BB is still and AL-best 5.47, but it too has suffered from previous seasons hovering around seven. An underdog pitcher needs his one elite asset to remain elite or the mirage vanishes and he is left realizing he’s in the middle of a desert.
The good news is Tomlin has gone through these funks in the past and has been able to self-correct to throw a string of quality starts together. It is possible he is mired in a particular long slump, but he could snap out of it and throw well enough to help the Indians make the postseason where he (hopefully) will not need to be relied upon.
Oh Rajai
Francisco Lindor hit the home run. Mike Napoli1, Jose Ramirez2, and Abraham Almonte3 all hit doubles. So, once again, Rajai Davis flew under the radar despite going a solid 2-for-4 out of the lead-off spot.
All season, Davis has been good enough to be a consistent force within the Indians lineup, but not stand out enough to be lauded as a key catalyst to the fourth-best run-scoring team in MLB (second in AL to the Boston Red Sox). Davis is hitting .280/.345/.360 since the day the Cavaliers became NBA champions and .263/.324/.414 (90 OPS+) on the season. The only number that stands out on his statistical line is his AL-best 28 stolen bases while being caught just three times.
While Davis’ baserunning and ability to put pressure on the opposition via the stolen base (or threat of a stolen base), his true value to the lineup might just be in his overall consistency. He can bat against left-handed pitchers (93 wRC+), he can bat against right-handed pitchers (104 wRC+). When he bunts, it is with the full intention of using it as a tool to obtain a hit.4 He slumped a bit in July, but that was his only semi-significant slump of the season and was done while obtaining one of his best hard-hit rates of the season at 33 percebt. He’s maintained the hard contact in August, and more of them have been falling in for hits.
And, though there is some randomness to it, Davis has saved his best at bats for key situations.5 While he only bats 84 wRC+ with the bases empty, it jumps to 129 wRC+ with runners on base, and again to 147 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. Jose Ramirez rightfully gets credit for his ability to put bat-on-ball and make things happen with RISP, but Davis does too.
Rajai Davis might not be the most important member of the Cleveland Indians, but if the team is going to maintain their success and make noise in October, then they will need players like him to continue to be positive impacts on the team. Few worry about Davis, which is good. But, maybe a few more should laud him for not being a weak link.
- Appetizers at Napoli’s
- Another big game going 3-for-4
- Though he was afraid of the sun and lost a fly ball in it.
- Davis is 2-for-3 on bunts with two hits and one sacrifice.
- Though his 73 percent pull rate in high leverage situations means he thinks he’s a power hitter when the game is on the line.